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Tuesday, 25 July
20:01
Building and renovating for profit is easier than it seems with Rebeka from BuildHer Pete Wargent Daily Blog
Renovating for profit
19:52
How dangerous is the European far-right ? John Quiggin
As is usual with trends of all kinds, some recent electoral successes for far-right parties in Europe have been extrapolated into a narrative in which the rise of the far-right is just about unstoppable.
That narrative took a blow with the recent Spanish elections in which the far-right Vox party performed poorly and its coalition with the traditional conservative Popular Party failed to secure a majority. Possibly as a result, the leader of the German CDU backed away from a suggestion that his party might go into a similar coalition with the AfD. And a similar coalition government in Finland appears to be on the verge of collapse.
From the other side of the world, its hard to know what to make of all this, but important to try to understand it. So, Ill toss out some thoughts and invite readers closer to the action to set me straight.
As I wrote a few years ago, the rise of a Trump-style far right has been driven by the collapse of the neoliberal consensus that dominated politics throughout the capitalist world from the 1970s, with power alternating between hard neoliberalism (represented by traditional conservative parties) and soft neoliberalism (represented by formerly socialist and social democratic parties). As the failures of neoliberalism became undeniable, there was no longer enough support to sustain two neoliberal parties, and alternatives began to emerge on both left and right.
The most dramatic manifestation of this process on the right has been Donald Trumps takeover of the US Republican party, which is now well to the right of any of the European far-right parties (with the possible exception of Fidesz in Hungary), and still commands around 50 per cent electoral support.
In Europe, though the more common party has been the rise of a far-right party commanding around 20 per cent of the vote. In most cases, this doesnt look to me like an upsurge in the popularity of rightwing ideas. Rather, this 20 per cent has always been there, waiting for the circumstances in which views that are normally unacceptable can gain political expression.
In my own home state of Queensland, for example, the racist One Nation party scored more than 20 per cent of the votes in a state election in 1998, before fading back into single digits.
A 20 per cent vote for the far-right enough to make it difficult for traditional conservatives to win government in their own right, but usually not enough for the far-right to lead a government of their own. Hence, the contortions mentioned above.
A lot of attention has been focused on the neo-fascist origins of some of the fa...
16:35
Woodside Energy [ASX:WDS] Up as Crude Over 52-Week High Daily Reckoning Australia
Oil and gas giant Woodside Energy Group [ASX:WDS] shares are up by 1% today, trading at $37.62 per share as commodity prices continue to rise.
LNG and oil are up today, with Brent crude and WTI oil above the 52-week moving average price. Signs of tighter supplies and pledges from Chinas leaders are the primary drivers as oil continues its fourth week of gains.
The timing could not be better for Woodside, who faced downward pressure last week after releasing its second-quarter report, which showed production and revenue were down from Q123.
Despite bumps in Q2 performance, Woodsides share price is still up by 22.46% in the past 12 months as more investors move into the supply-constrained sector and realise the limitations of the promised energy transition.
Source: TradingView
Woodsides quarterly update
Woodside shares are up 1% today, reversing any losses in share price after a shaky second-quarter report released last week.
Despite delivering fairly reliable production and sales volume, both experienced declines compared to the previous quarter due to planned turnaround and maintenance activities.
The company delivered quarterly production of 44.5 MMboe (489 Mboe/day), down by 5% from Q123.
As a result, revenues decreased by 29% from the first quarter with an average of $63/boe.
Woodside CEO Med ONeil commented on the Q2 update, saying:
Strong underlying operational performance in the second quarter was impacted by planned turnaround and maintenance activities, particularly at the onshore Pluto LNG facility and associated offshore facilities in WA.
Full-year production guidance remains unchanged at 180190 MMboe as maintenance will be offset by the early production at the new Argos platform ramps up.
The Argos platform began production in April this year and is part of...
15:03
The Big Switch Daily Reckoning Australia
Our neighbour came over for an apero yesterday. She told us about her poor father:
Hes 96 years old. He and my mother have been married more than 70 years. But he pointed to her last week and asked me: Whos that woman?
Its sad. Hes lived in that house for 50 yearsbut he cant remember where the bathroom is.
When he got the COVID virus, we all thought he was going to die. But he just lost his mind.
What has to happen will happen, sooner or later. Often, it takes longer than you expect.
The Fed has increased its key lending rate faster and more than any Fed ever did. But the stock market hasnt crashed. Unemployment is still low. And were still waiting for the recession.
How come?
The big switch
Last week, we were exploring the issue. The secret, we believe, is that the federales have lost their minds. The Trump Team went bonkers in the COVID Hysteria with a deficit of US$4.2 trillion in 2020then the Biden Bunch followed up with another US$1.4 trillion deficit in 2021.
In the meantime
Its still inflate or die. But now, consumer prices are coming downand the economy still lives. The reason, we believe, is that the source of inflation has largely switched from the monetary front (the Feds interest rates) to the fiscal front (federal deficits). The Fed is still lending at around zero cost in real terms. But now, in addition, the federal government is running the biggest budget deficits in history.
Inflation refers, technically, to an increase in the money supplywhich typically leads to an increase in prices. In todays global economy, you dont even have to spike your own punchbowl; about half of the worlds central banks are still lending money below the inflation ratesome as low as 6% below consumer price increases. Some of it is likely to leak in your direction.
But there are other ways to enliven a party. Turn up the music. Bring in a stripper. Pass out the hard drugs.
For the last 12 months, the US Government has been throwing the biggest shindig in history spending about $130 billion per week or nearly 14% more than the year beforeand 40% more than before the COVID era blowout.
Bank bailoutsthe slaughter in Ukrainea boondoggle for the silicon chip industry it adds up. And now, Government spending is headed toward 39% of the US economy (see below). Not since the Second World War has so much of US output been squandered by the Government.
Bananaless republic
The federales are taking charge of everything deciding which industries will prosper and which wont which news reports are disinformation, and which are truthtelling foreigners what kind of governments they must have, where their borders should be, and with whom they should trade...
15:03
When the Long-Term Becomes Short Term Daily Reckoning Australia
For those baffled by Wall Streets miraculous recovery in 2023, todays morning edition of Sky News solved the mystery
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Source: Sky News |
Bad news for the Bullspark rangers have now released the Bear.
Watch out. Grrrrr.
Two long term trends on a collision course
In last Tuesdays Daily Reckoning Australia, we looked at the powerful drivers that propelled the S&P 500 to an extraordinary 48-fold gain over the past four decades.
The period of gain which has been almost, but not quite, all my adult life is why we expect the share market to be our retirement benefactor for the remainder of our adult lives.
It has gone on for so long that we simply expect itll continue in a business as usual fashion. But thats not how long-term cycles work.
There are prolonged periods of outperformance followed by underperformance.
Even the US Federal Reserve recognises the factors behind the last four decades of outperformance on Wall Street, are all but exhausted.
To quote from last weeks Daily Reckoning Australia
In June 2023, the Fed published this discussion paper
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14:56
Protected: In brief: Planning deregulation, Housing Supply and Affordability Prosper Australia
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
11:27
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09:57
Protected: Land Ownership Makes No Sense Prosper Australia
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
09:56
Demanding IPEF timeline threatens to undermine open and inclusive process of negotiations AFTINET
25 July, 2023: There has been increasing criticism of the process for negotiating the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) with the recent conclusion of the fourth round IPEF negotiations in Busan, South Korea which reported incremental progress.
The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) is a regional forum initiated by the US that proponents say will strengthen economic cooperation between its 14 participants and divert supply chains away from China. IPEF, unlike traditional trade agreements, does not include market access commitments like lower tariffs. Instead, the main incentives are increased investment and capacity building projects in addition to commitments to improve human rights, labour rights and environmental standards in the region.
The US has set an ambitious timeline to conclude IPEF negotiations before the US-held Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in November. However, there are concerns that US pressure to quickly conclude IPEF is harming the transparency of the process, even for negotiators.
Increasingly limited stakeholder consultation
IPEF promised to be a new model of progressive trade arrangements which prioritises high labour, environmental and human rights standards. The rhetoric of IPEF has centred heavily on inclusivity and engagement during negotiations.
However, from the start of discussions, the US has prevented IPEF countries from revealing the negotiating texts until 5 years after the negotiations are completed. This is a year longer than for The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a previous trade agreement widely criticised as opaque and corporate-dominated.
Despite the announcement of the substantial conclusion of pillar 2 supply chain negotiations in Detroit in May, the text of the completed agreement has still not been released. IPEF governments have not responded to calls from AFTINET and other civil society groups to release the text.
This marks a step back for both the negotiating text and concluded text. In 2016, negotiators did release the concluded text of the TPP at this stage to the public, showing that the...
09:06
Protected: Community Land Trusts can progress Georgist theory Prosper Australia
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
08:52
Protected: An Open Letter To King Charles III On His Coronation Prosper Australia
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
05:05
Australia fact of the day "IndyWatch Feed Economics"
Health officials have virtually eliminated HIV transmission in parts of Sydney that were once the centre of the Australian Aids epidemic, raising hopes of conquering a disease that has killed more than 40mn people.
HIV diagnoses in inner Sydney plunged 88 per cent from the 2008-12 average to just 11 cases last year, a decline on a scale never before recorded in a former Aids hotspot.
The results add to evidence that existing prevention strategies, including testing and pre-exposure drugs, are highly effective when implemented correctly.
Rapid progress towards ending Aids is possible. If trends continue, several countries in several global regions will reach the [UN] goal of a 90 per cent HIV incidence reduction by 2030, researchers said.
Here is the full FT story. As I have been saying people, you are living in a new age of biomedical miracles.
The post Australia fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
Monday, 24 July
20:22
Should we delay the Voice vote? Crispin Hull
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should not abandon the Voice referendum at least not yet. But if the polls continue their present trend, he will have to seriously consider it.
The choice is stark. If the referendum is put and lost, a very sensible proposal and all of the exhaustive consultation with Indigenous people would be lost, never to be regained.
The anguish among Indigenous people, the vast majority of whom support the Voice, will be palpable.
Further, Australias international reputation would be tarnished. After the loss of the republic referendum, people outside Australia thought we were just silly. If the Voice goes down, they will think we are racist, no matter how many hands-on-heart denials from No voters.
That will mean some of our tourism industry will suffer. Plenty of foreign tourists come to Australia for natural beauty and ancient culture. They will be turned off.
The cost is simply too high to risk. That is a good ground for calling off the referendum if the polls point to defeat. At least the very good model can stay on the table for another day, even if it requires new enabling legislation later.
Without polls changing direction, there are also good Machiavellian reasons for calling the referendum off, but calling it off as late in the day as possible.
If the polls look poor and he does have the leadership quality to call it off, he will have to be a bit Machiavellian about it and rely on the dictum that the ends justify the means.
The referendum must be held between no earlier than two months after the Referendum Bill was passed and no later than six months. And it must be on a Saturday. The Bill was passed on 19 June. So, the latest date for the vote is 16 December.
There has to be 33 days for campaigning before the voting date. So, the writ for the vote must be issued (by the Governor-General on the advice of the Government) by 12 November.
If Albanese has not set the date for the vote by 12 November, the referendum is off. And if, on 12 November he sets a date for the vote, that vote can only take place on 16 December. If he wants it earlier, he must advise the Governor-General to issue the writ correspondingly earlier.
Albanese can just nominate any Saturday after 19 August without advising the Governor-General to issue the writ, and still call it off. But once he advises the Governor-General to issue the writ for his chosen day at least 33 days...
14:48
Mainstream logic should conclude the Australian unemployment rate is above the NAIRU not below it as the RBA claims William Mitchell Modern Monetary Theory
Lets put ourselves in the shoes of a mainstream New Keynesian economist for a moment. We would never want to walk in them for long because our self esteem would plummet as we realised what frauds we were. But suspend judgement for a while because to understand what is wrong with the current domination of
14:16
Protected: The Great Australian Nightmare Prosper Australia
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13:04
Protected: Speculation, housing supply and prices Prosper Australia
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07:04
Inflation in focus this week Pete Wargent Daily Blog
05:21
Disaster and denial John Quiggin
I was looking at this picture of people (mostly tourists, it appears) fleeing massive fires in Rhodes, feeling despair about the future of the world
when I was struck by an even more despairing thought.
Almost certainly, a lot of the people in the picture are climate
denialists. And even more certainly, they will mostly remain so
despite this experience.
Australia was one of the first countries to experience massive fires clearly attributable to global heating. In December 2019, fires burned up and down the east coast for weeks. Most of our major cities were blanketed in toxic smoke.
The conservative government of Scott Morrison, which had scored a surprise election win earlier in the year, made of botch of dealing with the fires (Morrison himself secretly jetted off to Hawaii for a holiday) and played down any role of climate, ably supported by the Murdoch press. Despite this, the denialist National Party retained its seats in most of the worst-affected parts of the country at the next election.
Labor, which had gone to the 2019 election with a reasonably good climate policy, dumped it in favor of marginal tweaks to the governments non-policy. Since winning office in 2022, the Labor government has approved massive new coal mines and gas fields.
And theres nothing uniquely Australian about this. UK Labour is apparently considering winding back its climate policies on the basis of a mildly disappointing by-election result, and the denialist faction of the Conservative party is gaining strength.
Perhaps there is hope to be had somewhere, but Im not feeling it right now.
05:14
Monday Message Board John Quiggin
Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.
Im now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, Ill post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.