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Monday, 24 July

20:22

Should we delay the Voice vote? Crispin Hull

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese should not abandon the Voice referendum at least not yet. But if the polls continue their present trend, he will have to seriously consider it.

The choice is stark. If the referendum is put and lost, a very sensible proposal and all of the exhaustive consultation with Indigenous people would be lost, never to be regained.

The anguish among Indigenous people, the vast majority of whom support the Voice, will be palpable.

Further, Australias international reputation would be tarnished. After the loss of the republic referendum, people outside Australia thought we were just silly. If the Voice goes down, they will think we are racist, no matter how many hands-on-heart denials from No voters.

That will mean some of our tourism industry will suffer. Plenty of foreign tourists come to Australia for natural beauty and ancient culture. They will be turned off.

The cost is simply too high to risk. That is a good ground for calling off the referendum if the polls point to defeat. At least the very good model can stay on the table for another day, even if it requires new enabling legislation later.

Without polls changing direction, there are also good Machiavellian reasons for calling the referendum off, but calling it off as late in the day as possible.

If the polls look poor and he does have the leadership quality to call it off, he will have to be a bit Machiavellian about it and rely on the dictum that the ends justify the means.

The referendum must be held between no earlier than two months after the Referendum Bill was passed and no later than six months. And it must be on a Saturday. The Bill was passed on 19 June. So, the latest date for the vote is 16 December.

There has to be 33 days for campaigning before the voting date. So, the writ for the vote must be issued (by the Governor-General on the advice of the Government) by 12 November.

If Albanese has not set the date for the vote by 12 November, the referendum is off. And if, on 12 November he sets a date for the vote, that vote can only take place on 16 December. If he wants it earlier, he must advise the Governor-General to issue the writ correspondingly earlier.

Albanese can just nominate any Saturday after 19 August without advising the Governor-General to issue the writ, and still call it off. But once he advises the Governor-General to issue the writ for his chosen day at least 33 days...

14:48

Mainstream logic should conclude the Australian unemployment rate is above the NAIRU not below it as the RBA claims William Mitchell Modern Monetary Theory

Lets put ourselves in the shoes of a mainstream New Keynesian economist for a moment. We would never want to walk in them for long because our self esteem would plummet as we realised what frauds we were. But suspend judgement for a while because to understand what is wrong with the current domination of

14:16

Protected: The Great Australian Nightmare Prosper Australia

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

13:04

Protected: Speculation, housing supply and prices Prosper Australia

There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.

07:04

Inflation in focus this week Pete Wargent Daily Blog

Inflation preview

By far the most anticipated data release this month will be the quarterly inflation figures for June, which are due to be released on Wednesday.

Australia's monthly inflation indicator has already eased back to 5.6 per cent over the year to May, having run as high as 8.4 per cent in December 2022. 

The quarterly figures won't be as low as that, but they'll probably come in at around 6.3 per cent over the year to June, down from 7 per cent in March, and 7.8 per cent in December 2022.

So the direction of travel is pretty clear now.

Looking elsewhere around the developed world, the US inflation rate was just a nick under 3 per cent over the year to June, and in Canada the headline inflation figures had already fallen to 2.8 per cent.

Who knows, before long they may well be talking about deflation being a bigger risk!

The UK is a bit of an outlier, having experienced all kinds of bother related to trade friction (Brexit), exploding food prices (Ukraine war), energy bills (ditto), rampant immigration, and more.

But even the Brits have seen inflation drop from 11.1 per cent in October 2022 to 7.9 per cent in June, with the latest figures surprising to the downside. 


Core quarterly or 'trimmed mean' inflation is set to continue its downtrend from 1.9 per cent in September 2022, to 1.7 per cent in December, 1.2 per cent in March...to around 1 per cent this quarter. 
...

05:21

Disaster and denial John Quiggin

I was looking at this picture of people (mostly tourists, it appears) fleeing massive fires in Rhodes, feeling despair about the future of the world



when I was struck by an even more despairing thought.
Almost certainly, a lot of the people in the picture are climate denialists. And even more certainly, they will mostly remain so despite this experience.

Australia was one of the first countries to experience massive fires clearly attributable to global heating. In December 2019, fires burned up and down the east coast for weeks. Most of our major cities were blanketed in toxic smoke.

The conservative government of Scott Morrison, which had scored a surprise election win earlier in the year, made of botch of dealing with the fires (Morrison himself secretly jetted off to Hawaii for a holiday) and played down any role of climate, ably supported by the Murdoch press. Despite this, the denialist National Party retained its seats in most of the worst-affected parts of the country at the next election.

Labor, which had gone to the 2019 election with a reasonably good climate policy, dumped it in favor of marginal tweaks to the governments non-policy. Since winning office in 2022, the Labor government has approved massive new coal mines and gas fields.

And theres nothing uniquely Australian about this. UK Labour is apparently considering winding back its climate policies on the basis of a mildly disappointing by-election result, and the denialist faction of the Conservative party is gaining strength.

Perhaps there is hope to be had somewhere, but Im not feeling it right now.

05:14

Monday Message Board John Quiggin

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

Im now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, Ill post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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Sunday, 23 July

18:10

2 Sense: RBA changes, construction costs calming & students swamping cities Pete Wargent Daily Blog

Australian Property Podcast

This week on the Australian Property Podcast, Batesy and I discussed construction cost woes, international students pouring in, and all change at the RBA.

Tune in here (or click on the image below):


You can also watch on YouTube here (or below):

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Saturday, 22 July

10:30

The Green Fraud: How Climate Alarmists Are Scamming You (Part Two) Daily Reckoning Australia

This is being enabled by a senile Joe Biden and thousands of bureaucrats buried in the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy (DOE), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and scores of other agencies.

The US Treasury, SEC, and the Federal Reserve have even joined in by regulating loans to the oil and gas industry, as well as requiring financial disclosures about climate change and other ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) metrics.

The World Bank (controlled by the US) is being encouraged to deny loans to industries that involve carbon-based development and to steer financing toward projects approved by the climate mavens. This is called the all of government approach, in which every agency gets involved in pushing the climate agenda, even if its not the primary job of that agency. The pressure never stops.

In short, the climate change debate could not be more relevant to investors. Those calling the shots in the Green New Deal (what I call the Green New Scam) will decide which industries win or lose, which projects get financed (or not), which initiatives are subsidised by the government or left to wither on the vine, and which companies will feel the regulatory heat if they dont get with Bidens programs. Climate change is not a sideshow. Nothing is more relevant to markets, investors, and asset allocators today.


Fat Tail Investment Research

Source: Jim Rickards

[Click to open in a new window]

Yes, the climate has always changed

Lets get one thing cleared up before we go further. The climate does change. It always has.

During the Medieval Warm Period (9501250 AD), the Vikings had farms and settlements in Greenland. Today, those settle...

10:30

A Cobra Has Eaten Your Super Daily Reckoning Australia

Is the Australian superannuation system designed to fund your retirement or fund managers lifestyles?

Its a trick question, of course. The correct answer is that it doesnt matter what a government policy is designed to do. It always does the opposite anyway a phenomenon that economists call the Cobra Effect.

As the story goes, the British Government in Delhi decided to get rid of cobras by offering a bounty for cobra skins. The result was a vast increase in the cobra breeding industry

Even the British Government eventually figured out what was going on and closed the subsidy program. And so, the cobra breeders, no doubt caught up in a frenzy of animal rights environmentalism, freed their stock back into its natural habitat, causing a flood of cobras on the streets of Delhi.

Thus, the government programs intention to reduce the number of cobras resulted in a cobra plague. And so itll be for the superannuation industry too, Ive always said.

Now, Id just like to mention that the sound of a hissing cobra once caused me to be so petrified that I couldnt even manage to wet my pants.

That is probably how the superannuation industry is feeling right now too. You see, the super industry forgot that the Baby Boomer generation would eventually like its money backbut somebody at the regulator just reminded them.

Super funds slammed over failure to plan for Boomer retirement wave, reports The Australian Financial Review. This is despite the law requiring them to help members plan for their super withdrawals to fund retirement.

Yes, according to the regulators tasked with making sure the super industry follows the rules, the super industry is not following the rules.

You and I might think this requires the regulators to experience some form of accountability for not doing their job. But thats just not how the Cobra Effect works. Its always the man on the street who gets bitten on the bum by the consequences of government policies.

Now Im sure it comes as a complete shock to people in the finance industry that people might want their money back at some point.

Then again, fund managers from Bernie Madoff to the UKs superstar stock-picker Neil Woodford have always struggled with the concept. Not to mention banks, like those which failed in the US this year when depositors wanted their money back.

So, Australias superannuation industry probably thought their gravy train of compulsory savings they kept safely out of our reach would go on forever.

But, yes, people will eventually withdraw money from a retirement savings systemif they can.

The trouble is that, when it comes to super, this implies selling the assets in the fundand that means fewer assets under management for the fundiesand that means fewer fees for fundies

Uh oh

But it gets worse. The premise of the super system is that its many savers an...

03:30

Co-op housing model could be the answer to social housing crisis "IndyWatch Feed Economics"

Co-op housing model could be the answer to social housing crisis Josh Davis July 21, 2023, 5:30 pm

The Business Council of Co-operatives and Mutuals CEO Melina Morrison says the social housing sector in Australia suffers from a lack of awareness and diversity. "The most successful model of this is in Victoria, where 3.4 per cent of all social housing is this rental Co-Op housing model," Ms Morrison told Sky News Australia. "We're just asking for a proportion of what is going to be applied to social housing development in Australia to be allocated to this highly successful rental model."

Watch more from Sky News Australia on YouTube

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Tuesday, 04 July

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.70 AUD
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Monday, 03 July

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.65 AUD
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Monday, 26 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.50 AUD
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Wednesday, 21 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.35 AUD
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Tuesday, 20 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.95 AUD
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Monday, 19 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.85 AUD
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Friday, 16 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.75 AUD
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Thursday, 15 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.70 AUD
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Tuesday, 13 June

18:10

Explore Altcoins with MEXC: A Comprehensive Review "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

The world of cryptocurrencies is constantly growing, with more and more altcoins emerging every day. For experienced and novice traders alike, finding the right platform for trading these digital assets is crucial. One such platform is MEXC, a popular altcoins exchange that has gained traction in recent years. In this comprehensive review, we delve into the ins and outs of this powerful platform, examining its features, pros, and cons, as well as comparing it to some alternatives.

MEXC: An Overview

MEXC is a Singapore-based altcoins exchange that was established in 2018. Over the years, it has rapidly expanded its offerings, now boasting over 1,600 cryptocurrencies and a global user base of more than 10 million. The platform provides users with a wide array of trading options, including spot, margin, and futures trading, as well as various staking services. Furthermore, MEXC has obtained key licenses in several countries, such as the United States, Canada, Australia, and Estonia, enabling it to operate in strict jurisdictions.

Review of MEXC altcoin exchange

Key Features of MEXC

MEXC prides itself on offering a multitude of features to cater to the diverse needs of its users. Some of the standout aspects of this altcoins exchange include:

  • A vast selection of over 1,600 cryptocurrencies, providing ample trading opportunities for users
  • Multiple trading options, including spot, margin, and futures trading, as well as leveraged ETFs
  • High liquidity and trading volume, ensuring smooth and efficient transactions
  • No mandatory KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements for basic trading, allowing users to maintain their privacy
  • A user-friendly mobile app for Android and iOS devices, enabling seamless trading on-the-go
  • Staking services for numerous cryptocurrencies, letting users earn passive income
  • An affiliate program, offering lucrative rewards for referring new users to the platform

Pros and Cons of MEXC

As with any exchange, MEXC has its own set of advantages and disadvantages. Heres a quick look at the key pros and cons:

Pros

  • A large assortment of over 1,600 cryptocurrencies, catering to diverse trading interests
  • Several trading options, such as spot, margin, and futures tr...

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Friday, 09 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.00 AUD
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Monday, 05 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.05 AUD
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Sunday, 04 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.10 AUD
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Thursday, 01 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.15 AUD
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Tuesday, 30 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.30 AUD
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Monday, 29 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.25 AUD
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Sunday, 28 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.20 AUD
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Sunday, 14 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.00 AUD
Converter

Sunday, 30 April

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00002 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 4.45 AUD
Converter

IndyWatch Australian Economic News Feed Archiver

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