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Tuesday, 20 June

22:22

Disinflation ahead, folks... Pete Wargent Daily Blog

Prices in decline

Pretty amazing to see the enormous slowdown in producer prices in Canada.

Raw materials prices have dropped far more than expected, down by a massive -18.4 per cent over the past year, helping overall PPI to decline to -6.3 per cent over the past year. 

This is very interesting because there was an argument that construction costs would be 'stickier' than this. 

Not so!


Germany's producer prices also fell twice as much as expected in May, dropping -1.7 per cent, taking the year-on-year growth down to around just 1 per cent.

This is important because the relationship between producer prices and consumer price inflation trends to be a strong one.


The US has also seen producer price inflation fall to 1 per cent, while in much of Europe it looks like the inflation story has almos...

17:41

Residential prices playing whack-a-mole Pete Wargent Daily Blog

ausbiz TV: property trends

I joined Danielle Ecuyer on ausbiz TV to discuss record population growth here (or click on the image below):

13:45

Deadwood, Deadends, and Deadheads Daily Reckoning Australia

Whoathat was a close call. It took us nearly 60 years of disappointment, observation, and regret to get it. We didnt want to lose it.

You dont develop cynicism overnight. It takes business deals gone badpolitical promises that we never meant to be keptinnovations and inventions that didnt work outpublic policies that were idiotic when they began, and disastrous when they ended.

In todays world, where would you be without cynicism? Doing five years in the can for visiting the Capitol building without a permit? Joining the Ukrainian army to protect our democracy? Buying Nvidia and trusting that the Fed really does know what it is doing?

We cant even write those words without chuckling to ourselves. It was only two years ago that the Fed forecast inflation for 2023 at 0.1% now they say it will be 5.6%. They were only off by 5,500%!

Stronger, richer, freer?

Last week, US Government debt passed US$32 trillion. And it is growing fast up by US$10 trillion over the last four yearsand now increasing at US$2.1 trillion per year.

And what do you think? Did a single penny of that debt make the US stronger, richer, and freer? How young do you have to be to believe it?

As the debt rises, so do interest rates. Year over year, the Feds interest payments are up nearly 50%. Next year, more tax money will be needed to support the debt than to support the Pentagon.

The private sector is also paying higher interest rates. Companies that took on billions of debt at 3% interest now have to refinance at 7%. And they cant print money.

From Wolf Richter:

companies that only made it this far thanks to Easy Money are now getting hung out to dry.

Bankruptcy filings will whittle down the corporate debt overhang. Many companies will emerge from bankruptcy with less debt, and theyll be nimbler and more able to thrive. Others will be sold off in bits and pieces, making room for appropriately managed companies not encumbered by these issues.

There is a cleansing aspect to this part of the credit cycle that needs to be allowed to do its job to get rid of the excesses and the deadwood at the expense of investors. This cleansing process that has now just started is long overdue.

Mass VC extinction event

And heres Garrett Baldwin at Postcards from the Florida Republic:

Venture Capital has imploded over the last 18 months. Last week, the Wall Street Journal released a distressing analysis. Theyve found many startups are now unable to secure the funding they need. To say VC has been suffering is an understatement. Tom Loverro, a general partner at VC shop IVP, has said The Mass Extinction Event for startups is underway. Venture capital losses ov...

13:45

A Rich Life is Measured by More Than Money Daily Reckoning Australia

Its 3:42am and todays Daily Reckoning Australia finds me in a reflective mood.

My elderly fathers health is failing.

One fall too many has forced him to surrender his highly prized independence.

We knew this day of reckoning was comingbut its still sad to watch.

A tour of the assisted care facilities provided me with a stark reminder of what constitutes a rich life.

When a financial publication usually mentions the term rich, it tends to be associated with money or a vein of ore.

Not this time.

Dont get me wrong, money is important especially when it comes to paying the not-so-insignificant Refundable Accommodation Deposit (RAD). However, when the final tally on your life is done, true net worth is measured by other factors.

Money cant buy love

In 1964, the year when the last of my parents five children was born, The Beatles hit single Cant Buy Me Love was released.

In Paul McCartneys own words, his motivation for the song was

Cant Buy Me Love is my attempt to write a bluesy mode. The idea behind it was that all these material possessions are all very well but they wont buy me what I really want.

Growing up in a working-class family, material possessions were few and far between. Money was needed for the basicsshelter, transportation, food, clothing, and education. Precious little was left for material indulgences.

Society has changed quite a bit since then.

Credit-funded consumerism has literally consumed the developed and a good chunk of the developing world.

The quip, we buy things we dont need, with money we dont have, to impress people we dont like originally referred to Hollywood. These days, it extends well beyond the zip code of Beverly Hills.

And this increasing obsession with look at me on social media suggests the penny has not yet dropped on true love extending beyond self.

Of the limited number of possessions Dad can take with him, the most prized are his photos of family and friends. These are his permanent reminders of a rich lifeone that money alone cannot buy.

When it all gets distilled down, material goods become immaterial and its not how much you love yourself, but how much you are loved by others.

In the final tally, love and respect are what matters most.

Money cant buy happiness

Long before The Beatles were singing Tell me that you want the kind of things that money just cant buy, Roman philosopher Seneca (4 BC to 65 AD) wrote a letter to his mother.

The titleOf Consolation: To Helvia

Heres an extract

Consider in the first place how many more poor people there are than rich, and yet you will not find that they are sadder or...

10:31

AFTINET updated briefing paper calls for the urgent review and removal of ISDS in existing trade agreements AFTINET

June 20, 2023 : AFTINET has produced an updated briefing paper on Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) with the latest case studies.

Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) is a mechanism within some trade agreements which enables foreign (but not local) investors to sue governments for millions and even billions of dollars of compensation if they can argue that a change in domestic law or policy has reduced the value of their investment, and/or that they were not consulted fairly about the change, and/or that it did not meet their expectations of the regulatory environment at the time of their investment.

ISDS is a flawed system which gives additional legal rights to international investors which already have enormous market power.  ISDS cases have been used to claim compensation for legitimate public interest laws and policies on health, environment, indigenous land rights, minimum wages and government action to reduce carbon emissions. This has a freezing effect on essential regulation and undermines the democratic right of governments to regulate in the public interest. Even if governments win ISDS cases, they cost tens of millions to defend.

ISDS flawed processes include: use of ad hoc tribunals, a lack of transparency; lengthy proceedings; high legal and arbitration costs and inconsistent decisions caused by the lack of precedents and appeals. Arbitrators are not independent judges, but instead remain practising advocates with potential or actual conflicts of interest.

Clive Palmer's claim to be a Singaporean investor in order to use ISDS in the Australia-New Zealand ASEAN FTA to sue the Australian government is just the latest example of international investors manipulation of ISDS in trade and investment agreements. The US Philip Morris tobacco company in 2012 also moved assets to Hong Kong and used ISDS in an Australia-Hong Kong investment agreement to sue Australia over our plain packaging laws. Australias large number of previous agreements with ISDS have also enabled international mining companies to use Australian subsidiaries in forum shopping exercises.

ISDS also enables excessively high awards based on dubious and inconsistent calculations of expected future profits, which can reduce significantly government funds for essential services, as occurred with the US $5.8 billion award against Pakistan. Third-party funding for cases as speculative investments which receive a percentage of the award encourages excessive claims, which are more about making money than obtaining justice.

Governments are responding to global movements a...

01:00

397. Responding to journal reviews Pannell Discussions

Research papers that are submitted to journals for publication are sent to independent reviewers, who have the task of assessing whether the work should be published and suggesting ways that the paper could be improved. For researchers, responding to the reviewers comments can be challenging. How should you approach it? 

There are three aspects of responding to reviewers: (a) responding emotionally to the comments you receive, (b) preparing a document that describes how you have responded to each of the reviewers comments, and (c) making changes to the paper.

Responding emotionally

Be positive.

If the editors decision is to reject your paper, you need to consider whether any changes are needed before sending it to another journal. Just soak it up and get on with it. Dont sit on the paper for ages while you recover from the rejection keep it moving.

If the editors decision is to ask you to revise and resubmit your paper, you should be happy, even if the reviews are annoying. The chances of a revise-and-resubmit paper eventually getting accepted are pretty good.

Even if you get a revise-and-resubmit decision, a common experience is that, on first reading, the reviewers comments seem more negative and more difficult to address than they really are. You can find yourself responding emotionally to the criticisms that the reviewers make of your work, especially if you dont agree with them. This is understandable, but not helpful. It might discourage you from revising the paper, but you should just get on with it. And when you do get on with it, you could well find that the changes you end up making to the paper are less extensive and less time-consuming than you first expect they will need to be.

It can be helpful to have an initial read of the reviews, then put them aside for a few days while you think about the comments (and calm down) and then come back and read them carefully again.

The response document

Before editing the paper or going and doing new statistical analysis or model runs, the first thing I suggest you should do is to create a table with two columns in your word processor and copy all of the reviewers comments into the left column. The heading for the left column is Review comment and the for the right column it is Response.

Each comment that needs a response goes in...

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Monday, 19 June

17:53

Beware: pension systems about to collapse. Not! More mainstream fiction William Mitchell Modern Monetary Theory

Sometimes, one thinks that the intellectual world should evolve as intelligent people take account of the dissonance between their ideas and the facts before them and adapt their views. I know that doesnt happen much but it should. I have studied the philosophy of science deeply enough over my student and postgrad days and beyond

17:50

Nats in blunder over Voice Crispin Hull

Nats say No to Voice. Not a smile in sight.

Nationals Leader David Littleproud made an astounding error of fact in his arguments against the Voice yesterday.

But in doing so he inadvertently made one of the strongest arguments in favour of the Voice so far.

He said: I think theres a way in which we can articulate that our great country is founded on a key tenet that all 26 million Australians are equal and that we all have an equal voice in this parliament through the 226 members of the Senate and the House of Representatives.

That is just simply not true. The great Founding Fathers in whom the conservatives have vested such wisdom that the Constitution should not be changed did not give all Australians an equal voice in the Parliament.

They specifically gave the people of the smaller colonies which were to become states a greater voice in the Parliament than those from the larger colonies.

Each original state was granted a minimum of five Members of the House of Representatives, irrespective of their population. To this day the people living in the five Tasmanian electorates get a greater voice: one MP for every 108,000 voters, compared to one for 175,000 in other states.

The Constitution also gave each state an equal number of Senators, now increased to 12. It means that Tasmania has one senator for every 45,000 people whereas NSW has one senator for every 668,000. South Australians get one senator for every 146,000 people. 

This is simply not equal, and the leader of a major political party and MP for seven years should know as much.

Ironically, Littleproud was rejecting Opposition Leader Peter Duttons notion of the Voice re-racialising the Australian Constitution by making Indigenous people more equal than everyone else. It was a leaf from the US far rights manual of political fear-mongering.

The Founding Fathers were right to give the smaller states greater representation in our constitutional compact because otherwise they would be put upon, ignored, or exploited. Without it, Tasmania would be even worse off. Remember, Senator Brian Harradine extracting special deals for Tasmania. Jackie Lambie is still at it. South Australian senators...

11:06

How Vietnam Can Disrupt Chinas Dominance in EVs Pacific Money The Diplomat

There's a long way to go, but the country has most of the ingredients it needs to be a significant player in global EV supply chains.

05:41

Monday Message Board John Quiggin

Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please.

Im now using Substack as a blogging platform, and for my monthly email newsletter. For the moment, Ill post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here.

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Tuesday, 06 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.95 AUD
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Monday, 05 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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0.00010 BTC = 4.05 AUD
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Sunday, 04 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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0.00010 BTC = 4.10 AUD
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Thursday, 01 June

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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0.00010 BTC = 4.15 AUD
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Tuesday, 30 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Monday, 29 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Sunday, 28 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Sunday, 14 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Friday, 05 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Thursday, 04 May

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Sunday, 30 April

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Wednesday, 26 April

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Thursday, 13 April

14:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Wednesday, 15 March

15:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

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Tuesday, 14 March

15:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.90 AUD
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Monday, 13 March

15:00

Australian Dollar and Bitcoin "IndyWatch Feed Crypto"

1.00 AUD = 0.00003 BTC
0.00010 BTC = 3.35 AUD
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