A new, long-term, secular bull market in gold has begun.
This new trend will take gold past US$1,400 per ounce by the end
of 2018, past US$4,000 per ounce by 2020 (if not sooner) and
ultimately to US$10,000 per ounce or higher by the mid-2020s.
This bull market actually began on Dec. 17, 2015, when the
dollar price of gold sank to $1,051 per ounce. This new bull market
was two years old last weekend.
Bull markets begin slowly, almost unnoticed in the gloom of the
prior bear market. The biggest gains often come after a few years
when the crowd catches on and the price action gains momentum.
This new bull market in gold is the real deal and should last
until 2028 or beyond.
The moves so far have been relatively small compared with whats
This is the perfect time to
make your allocation to physical gold, gold mining shares and
gold royalty companies or streamers.
The last secular bull market began on Aug. 25, 1999.
The 19992011 bull market represented a 655% gain over the
starting price, easily outpacing stocks, bonds, emerging markets
and other competing asset classes.
September 2011 marked the start of a brutal four-year bear
market, with gold finally bottoming at $1,051 per ounce.
Unfortunately, that bear market included a lot of head fakes and
bear traps along the way.
Buying the dips was a consistently losing strategy as gold
continued its downward trajectory after every brief rally. The pain
continued until December 2015.
Now heres the good news: The bear market in gold is officially
Whats my evidence for this
The most important piece of evidence that the next great bull
market in gold has begun is the technical behaviour of the prior
bear market itself.
Over many decades, commodities rallies have exhibited 50%
retracements (bear markets) before resuming their long-term upward
trends based on the slow, steady devaluation of the fiat currency
in which the commodities are priced.
A 50% retracement of that 12-year rally means a decline of $824
per ounce (i.e., 50% of the $1,648-per-ounce gain), which would put
gold at $1,076 per ounce.
Guess where gold bottomed?
It bottomed at US$1,051 per ounce, within 2% of the 50%
retracement target. That decline is an almost perfect technical
By itself, this pattern proves nothing without additional
confirmatory evidence. This is why we did not...