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Jebediah Cole has used data from the last 3 federal elections to simulate the possible results from 20,000 elections using monte carlo simulation. In particular he is interested in Senate outcomes under the proposed new voting rules.
It is not a pretty sight:
The most important findings are:
- The average election outcome, as well as the most common outcome, was a Senate controlled by Labor and The Greens.
- It is practically impossible for the Liberal/National Coalition to gain control of the Senate using the changed rules, whether there is a double-dissolution election or not.
- The Coalition would in fact gain a majority in the Senate at only one out of 400 double-dissolution elections, given current voting patterns.
- The Greens stand to gain the most as they will become a permanent cross-bench, and will almost always be the only party that the Coalition or Labor can negotiate with to pass legislation (other than each other).
One of the arguments that I’ve seen is that the new voting mechanism, under current voting patterns, will often result in the Coalition having a blocking majority (i.e. 38 Senators) but the monte carlo analysis suggests they will often fall short of even that goal.
(HT: Tim Andrews)
Senator LAMBIE: There is a myth—that the Liberals are good managers of public funds — which I would like to question by stating the facts.
The Howard Liberal government made a grand total of $59.8 billion from public asset sales: $4.4 billion from airports, $48.6 billion from Telstra and $6.8 billion from Commonwealth Bank.
Senator Ian Macdonald: Mr Acting Deputy President, I rise on a point of order. I draw you to the standing order which requires that senators shall not read their speeches.
Senator Cameron: On the point of order: Senator Macdonald has been around here long enough to know that that is an absolute nonsense proposal he has put forward. Senator Lambie has been on her feet for I think 15 seconds, and I just think it is absolutely outrageous to put that proposal up.
The ACTING DEPUTY PRESIDENT ( Senator Williams
): I am going to rule it as okay for Senator Lambie
to continue. I have been here for some time now and I have seen many, many senators refer to notes in front
of them. Continue, Senator Lambie.
Senator LAMBIE: The Liberals under Mr Howard and Mr Abbott sold $59.8 billion of public assets and paid back $57 billion of Labor debt, leaving us with $108 billion of outstanding bonds and unfunded public service super.
How much revenue would have been raised to today had we not sold those public assets? In the last six months, the Turnbull Liberal government has failed to present a tax plan to the Australian people, and that failure has added to the chaos and confusion that the Abbott Liberal government first created for this parliament.
The Liberals like to spread the propaganda that it is the other crossbenchers and I who have made this Senate chaotic and unworkable.
In the Senate I have voted for and passed almost 75 per cent of the Liberals’ legislation. That is worth $32 billion. With my...
Coal miner New Hope is in court again, attempting to explain why the State Government should let them destroy another huge chunk of Queensland. read now...
Forget all the huff and puff from the Prime Minister about supporting open markets, his actions speak louder than words.
And similarly all that guff from the Treasurer about promoting competition and getting the states to come on board (outsourcing in health and education – sure, you can see that happening in Victoria, Queensland, SA .. NSW for that matter), it’s just chatter to make up some sort of “economic narrative” about the transition from the old economy – what? – to the new economy. Oh please.
But when the rubber really hits the road, this government is keener on protection than even their Labor mates. Of course, the Nats are forcing some of these decisions but it’s not hard to think that many Liberal parliamentarians are happy to go along with.
Here’s the thing: small businesses are no better than big businesses. They are less innovative than big businesses – Turnbull and Morrison just tell porkies on that. And this silly special tax provision for innovative start-ups is ridiculous; it will be gamed, lead to some lost revenue and have no effect. Deal with the base, mates, not silly bibs and bobs like this.
Just look where we are:
Once upon a time, anti-immigrant politics was the domain of the
racist "NZ First" party. Now
Labour wants a piece of the action:
If in power, a Labour Government would place a cap on immigration immediately.
"At times when our economy is creaking, we need to be able to turn down the tap a bit," Mr Little said.
Once the economy had recovered, the cap would be removed.
Climate Change Minister Paula Bennett has announced that the
scrap the ETS's two-for-one discount:
A special 50 percent reduction on climate change obligations for New Zealand citizens and companies will be scrapped.
This has been hinted at for some time but Climate Change Minster Paula Bennett confirmed it in an address to the energy sector in Wellington this morning.
But Mrs Bennett told the audience this concession would go.
"This isn't really a case of if we remove one-for two, but more when and how," she told her audience.
"It was always a temporary measure.
"It is abundantly clear that if the ETS is going to work, carbon must cost more than it does right now."
For anyone who thinks our industrial relations problems are sorted, read below. It is cheaper to import bricks – a heavy, low-valued added product – from Spain than to ship them from Perth to the east coast. Says it all really.
The government had a go at sorting out the exorbitant costs of coastal shipping and break down cabotage (the ultimate protection racket), but was blocked in the Senate. But because they are complete dopes, the bill was never reintroduced. I guess it’s a case of MUA.
It’s also why there are some other manufacturing plants floundering where the feeder stock has to be shipped around the coast – think Bell Bay aluminium smelter in Tasmania that must be teetering.
(The government really has so much blame to shoulder some of the blame for the complete lack of policy progress on some many issues: it could have done really well by lining up twice rejected bills to get stuff done but half the time, it didn’t even bother to put the bill to the senate even once – eg. cracking down on double dipping in paid parental leave, changes to family tax benefits, abolishing the Road Safety Remuneration Tribunal [ok, they only thought about, that but were too wimpy to give it a try).
If it is re-elected, the government should talk about a DD from the getko and line up bills deliberately. It will be the only way to get things done, particularly on IR, because the Greens are even worse than Labor.
Building materials giant Brickworks has warned jobs at its Perth manufacturing base are under threat as the company considers boosting imports from Spain in the face of the spiralling cost of shipping bricks around the country.
Brickworks chief executive Lindsay Partridge branded coastal shipping a “protected industry” ahead of the group’s annual results nex...
Trump took a big step towards the nomination today in winning Florida and other states. This is by Victor Davis Hanson, Time to Calm Down about Trump. It’s more than that. It is time that the Republican Party took him in and gave him their kindness and attention. The sub-head makes the point:
Trump is crude and politically clueless, but no more so than the Clintons, Sanders — or Obama
I will merely add that working for the Chamber of Commerce I met many like him. They knew everything, and when you have a billion dollars and a boat that’s bigger than my house, it’s not hard to think that way. But I also always knew how wary they were of me. My job was to make their vague capitalist notions fit into a wider economic and social narrative. Few of those at the top of a business conglomerate would have been able to carry on a conversation at Treasury or with the Fair Work Commission. That is what I did. And we were the most free market, anti-Keynesian operation in the whole of employer politics.
Trump is at the top of the league as a business strategist, and has a number of ideas that are sound and others which are not. But his core message works for me. He would have been the perfect Chairman of my Economics Committee. He won’t be a perfect president, but he will be better than any of the others who have sought the nomination on either side. Here is some sound advice from VDH:
I agree that it is disturbing that Trump does not grasp the nature of the nuclear triad, but so far he has not, as has Vice President Biden, claimed that a President FDR went on television in 1929 or, as has President Obama, that the Falklands are better known as the Maldives. His Trump vodka and steaks and eponymous schlock are a window into his narcissistic soul and his lack of concern with integrity; but I’ll say...
Why do Australia's journalists continue to be suckers for the self-serving propaganda of well-funded rent-seekers? read now...
Today is a Member's Day, and just like the last one, the top of the Order paper is clogged with second readings and committee stages. There's two private and local bills up first, and they could conceivably take up all the time. If the House works quickly, it may get back to the Second Reading of Meka Whaitiri's Environmental Protection Authority (Protection of Environment) Amendment Bill, but I don't see them going much further. Which is a problem for National, because they'd really like to pass Alfred Ngaro's Local Government (Auckland Council) Amendment Bill (No 3) (which bans people from sitting on multiple local boards) in time for the local body elections. But with a clogged Order paper and at least three member's days required to do it, they're going to be pushed for time.
Speaking of surveillance: last month we learned that WINZ was
monitoring beneficiaries' social media in an effort to detect
fraud. Its intrusive, invasive snooping, akin to stalking
someone in public and peeking through their windows. So what are
the rules around this, and how often does it happen? Someone used
FYI, the public OIA request
ask. The response?
Of course not:
The Ministry does not have a formal policy to monitor social media. Your request is refused under section 18(e) of the Official Information Act as this information does not exist.
The Ministry does not record and report instances where an individual's activity on their social media accounts, blogs or online presence is monitored or checked. As such this part of your request as well as the cost of social media monitoring is refused under section 18(e) of the Official information Act as this information does not exist.
At the moment, the government is conspiring to extend the GCSB's
allow domestic mass-surveillance of all our internet and phone
communications. But its not just the spies wanting to snoop on
everything. Down in Christchurch, they're
spying on people for dog control:
A Christchurch couple were shocked to discover the city council was spying on their dogs using a listening device covertly placed in their garden.
The move has astounded Jenny and Tim Bennett and a human rights lawyer, who said the couple's right to privacy has been breached.
The Christchurch City Council admitted on Tuesday it used the devices and normally sought permission before installing them.
That did not happen in the Bennetts' case.
Mill and Burke are interwoven into the history and the practice and the experience of our political party.The words of Mill emphasise the central role of the individual:
The only freedom which deserves the name is that of pursuing our own good in our own way, so long as we do not attempt to deprive others of theirs, or impede their efforts to attain it.In that regard, speaking at the launch of The Conservative at Parliament House on 8 September 2005, Howard said:
… we are a party that is committed to the role of the individual. … If you look for evidence of the classic liberal tradition within our embrace and within our activity, we think of our commitment to labour market reform. … labour market reform is about transferring power from institutions to individuals.When working in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs during the Howard years, it became quite apparent that we were not supposed to talk about ‘Aboriginal communities’. The whole government approach to both white and non-white people was about individuals and families. But Aboriginal and Torres Str...
Obviously, he thinks that the government’s voters are malign to be planning their estates or seeking to leave something to their children. The nerve.
Mind you, when it comes to negative gearing, it is just the ordinary punter wanting to get ahead (with a tax concession) but that’s somehow different and definitely not estate planning, according to ScoMo.
Hey, what about home owners who leave them to their children? That’s a form of estate planning, Mr Morrison. And let us not forget that the family home is the most tax sheltered vehicle around, much more so than superannuation. (Shut up, Judith, I hear you say – you might give Wayne Morrison ideas.)
And here’s another figure – there are estimated to be some 2000 superannuation accounts with $10 million or over (note that there can be up to 4 trustees of these accounts.) But there are over 10,000 owner occupied houses valued at $10 million or over. It is simply not possible for superannuation accounts to grow to this amount under present rules;the number of very high value houses will continue to grow.
When it comes to estate planning, the house can pass tax free to the beneficiaries while there is a 15 per cent tax on the concessional component of superannuation bequeathed to non-dependents. So much for superannuation being the preferred method of estate planning.
We are now being told that income taxes will not be reduced. And forget company taxes too.
The only conclusion i...
A simple relationship between sea level rise and the massive potential costs of future coastal flooding has been established by scientists in Germany, writes Tim Radford for Climate News Network. read now...
Although South Korea has abandoned its climate change commitments only three months after the Paris agreement, Australia according to Minister Greg Hunt is now at peak emissions For once the rent-seeking fairies at the Climate Council are surely right in claiming smoke and mirrors are the cause of this. It is doubtful that Hunt will simply rest on existing policy positions of renewable energy requirements at 24 per cent of electricity and a bevy of other subsidies, disastrous though these are for future prosperity.
The government’s claim is also at odds with the bleating of
Chief Green Chief Scientist.
Alan Finkel, (previous work: administration, electrical
engineer and neuroscience) on Q&A said, “For all the effort we are putting
into trying to avoid increases of emission, we are losing. What we
are doing with solar, wind, changing practices, behavioural
practices and things like that, we’re not winning the battle.”
Finkel inherited the CSIRO policy of pruning its climate drones, which he is clearly not pleased with.
At Estimates on 3 March 2016, the CEO of ASADA asserted he saved the the taxpayers $1m and the process of prosecuting 34 young Australians 12 months by not exercising ASADA’s right to appeal within Australia against the AFL tribunal’s decision that the 34 were innocent.
The CEO attempted to make a virtue of the fact that ASADA funded WADA to appeal that decision to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. Now of course the CEO is entitled to hold that view but I don’t buy it. Taxpayers funds and time delays have never been a consideration of ASADA since it began its investigation in February 2013. The matter continues, but now in a Swiss court because of the CEO’s decision.
The CAS doesn’t buy it either as the link and excerpt below demonstrate. CAS has changed its code to prevent this ever happening again. From now, before CAS will hear an appeal, all appeal rights within the country (in the 34’s case, Australia) have to be exhausted.
This is yet another example of how ASADA has trammelled the rights of the 34 young Australians and a further reason why Senators should do the decent thing and not follow the party line but support Senator Madigan’s motion for an inquiry into ASADA.
Initiation of the Arbitration by the CAS
Unless it appears from the outset that there is clearly no arbitration agreement referring to CAS, or that the agreement is clearly not related to the dispute at stake, or that the internal legal remedies available to the Appellant have clearly not been exhausted, CAS shall take all appropriate actions to set the arbitration in motion. The CAS Court Office shall communicate the statement of appeal to the Respondent, and the President of the Division shall proceed with the formation of the Panel in accordance with Articles R53
A look round at the political landscape in the lead up to this year's federal election.
Last Thursday I gave a talk to the Victorian branch of the Liberal Democratic Party on innovation policy. Several people have contacted me asking for my notes and/or references so that they can follow up on some of the things I said. So rather than reply individually I thought I’d provide a general reading list.
First, overall general reading:
1. Terence Kealey, 1996, The Economic Laws of Scientific Research – simply magnificent.
2. Daniel Greenberg, 2003, Science, Money, and Politics: Political Triumph and Ethical Erosion – very highly recommended. How the R&D lobby works in the US.
Then, my own humble contributions:
1. Sinclair Davidson, 2006a, Back to Basics: Why government funding of science is a waste of our money.
2. Sinclair Davidson, 2006b, The myths of public science.
3. Sinclair Davidson and Robert Brooks, 2010, How Much R&D Should Australia Undertake?, Economic Papers: A journal of applied economics and policy, 23(2):165 – 174.
4. Sinclair Davidson and Heath Spong, 2010, Positive Externalities and R&D: Two Conflicting Traditions in Economic Theory, Review of Political Economy, 22(3): 355-372.
5. Sinclair Davidson and Jason Potts, 2015, Social Costs and the Institution...
During my recent visit to London, where I debated the future of the UN at the London School of Economics (LSE), I also discussed my book Disaster Capitalism at the LSE with three articulate and critical women: Dr Brenna Bhandar, Dr Marsha Henry and Dr Devika Hovell. I was challenged on my choice of interviewees in the book, why more female voices weren’t heard and whether disaster capitalism is really any different to exploitative capitalism:
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